Then I began to think: why wait till December? The Dole campaign was so dreadful, so clueless and halfhearted, why not just make the speech now? Throw the nomination open to the Republican convention. It would be great fun for the press and public (and it would sure keep Clinton from dominating the news for a while). Most of the delegates are Dolefarian sorts anyway; they wouldn’t nominate anyone crazy. I was thinking about writing a column to propose such a strategy.
Silly me. Dole gave a very different sort of speech last week, cutting himself loose from all that he’s loved in public life. It was a good speech, a courageous one. It almost sounded like something Dole himself might actually say, if you discounted the mushy parts about soft summer breezes. And he delivered it well, for a change, although I did notice that he couldn’t quite bring himself to say the word “presidency” clearly. It kept coming out “presency.” And, let’s see – what else? Well, it did give the ravening horde of antsy, prematurely semi-retired Spinologists something to natter about for a day or two. But most of the nattering was ridiculous: I mean, does anyone seriously believe that Bob Dole’ role in the Senate was crippling his presidential campaign? Does anybody believe that Dole is 20 points down in the polls because Tom Daschle had cleverly blocked his proposed 4.3-cent gasoline tax cut? Does anyone outside of South Dakotans and C-Spann junkies know who Tom Daschle is?
The purpose of the speech was to convince the public, and maybe the candidate himself, that he really is running for president, that this nomination isn’t just the political equivalent of a gold watch bestowed upon him by a grateful party for a lifetime of public service. All right, then: I’m convinced. But Dole has yet to deal with the real problem his candidacy is facing, and he may never. Mario Cuomo used to say that you shouldn’t run for higher office – and he was an expert on this particular subject – if you didn’t have a rock-solid rationale for doing so. Two years ago, Dole had one: Bill Clinton lacked the maturity and discipline to be a plausible president. But that rationale has evaporated now. Clinton has made some clever moves, appropriating the Republican “values” agenda and appearing to support a balanced budget. He has also made some disgraceful and demagogic moves, lacerating the Republican efforts to reform Medicare. But the most important thing he’s done has been a matter of demeanor. He seems a president now – and it’s more than just the genius for mourning that he’s displayed this spring. He gives the appearance of a man who, faced with a crisis or a difficult choice, won’t do anything stupid. He won’t lead the country off a cliff.
Which was, of course, Dole’s line. Now he must find a new one, and his options aren’t overwhelming. He can continue the tactical course of the campaign, trying to outflank the president with silly periphera like the gas tax. Some of these maneuvers might prove effective, but they probably won’t change the basic trajectory of the election. The current Republican line – We support a balanced budget, welfare reform and lower taxes, and Bill Clinton doesn’t – just isn’t strong enough. The president can, and will, argue that he supports “responsible” versions of all of the above. (Trying to nail Clinton during an election year is like trying to box a cloud.)
Another possibility is to go ideological, embrace the Republican revolution and then some. Paul Gigot, of The Wall Street Journal, reports serious consideration of a monster supply-side tax cut. Oh, come on. This assumes the American people haven’t caught on to the real problem in Washington: the utter inability to address the signal budget-busting phenomenon, out-of-control entitlement programs. My guess is, the public will be skeptical about election-year tax cuts (and Dole won’t toss away a long history of fiscal prudence to pursue the supply-side chimera). Which is not to say that Dole will actually campaign responsibly on entitlements, or anything else. No, the senator’s boldness account is seriously overdrawn after last week’s adventure. Whatever he says the campaign is about, it has come to this: waiting to see if Clinton stumbles. It’s not impossible. This president hasn’t faced a real crisis yet – a riot, a hostage-taking, a war. He may not respond well if such a situation arises. Then again, he might. In which case, Dole’s resignation will have had the following net effect: it will have reduced the already depleted ranks of sensible human beings in the Senate by one decent, honorable and supremely effective member.
